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NIHR Economics Group Seminar Series


Find out more about the NIHR Economics Group's ongoing series of seminars about health and care economics

What is the seminar series for?

The NIHR Economics Group seminar series aims to showcase the breadth and quality of economics research being conducted across NIHR funded work. We hope that this will help to foster knowledge sharing and collaboration across the NIHR Economics Group sub-groups as well as across institutions.

Seminars will be hosted quarterly on Zoom and will follow the format of a 30-40 minute presentation followed by 10 minutes of comment from a discussant and 10-20 minutes of audience Q&A.

Who can present at our seminars?

We are particularly interested in providing early career researchers with the opportunity to showcase their work, but welcome expression of interest from all career stages. Submission of research in progress is welcome and encouraged. All research presented must be NIHR funded.

If you are interested in presenting your work at an upcoming seminar or would like to be considered for a discussant role, please fill out the expression of interest form for speaker here and for discussant here. 

 

Upcoming seminars

Title: Adapting the DHSC Return on Investment Model for an NIHR Biomedical Research Centre: the case of the Royal Marsden and the Institute of Cancer Research

Taking place: Tuesday 20th October from 13:00-14:00

Speaker bio: Prof Charitini Stavropoulou [citystgeorges.ac.uk] is Professor of Health Innovation Research at City St George’s University of London and the Director of the Centre for Health and Care Innovation Research (CHIR [blogs.city.ac.uk]). Her research examines how research and innovation are translated into policy and practice, with a particular focus on evaluating the impact and return on investment of publicly funded research. She works closely with UK and international funders to evaluate and inform their research policies.

Synopsis: As public funding for health and medical research comes under increasing pressure, demonstrating its economic and societal value has become more important. Return on investment (ROI) analyses offer funders and policymakers a tangible, quantifiable way to evidence that research spending generates benefits beyond the research output itself, through health gains, commercial activity, and wider economic spillovers.

This analysis estimates the ROI generated by government funding of the NIHR Royal Marsden and Institute of Cancer Research (ICR) Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) over an eight-year period (2017–18 to 2024–25). It adapts the Department of Health and Social Care's (DHSC) national ROI model for NIHR spend, replacing several standard national-level assumptions with observed, institution-specific financial and income data where available. Components modelled include attracted charity funding, attracted private investment, private returns via observed intellectual property income rather than an assumed rate of return, spillover benefits, and direct health benefits, net of the opportunity cost of private investment.

The model estimates that for every £1 invested there is £14.41 of societal benefit. Results were most sensitive to assumptions about spillover effects. An extension beyond the eight-year period is also considered, to improve long-term comparability with the national framework.

To our knowledge, this is the first time the DHSC's model has been applied in an adapted form to calculate the ROI of a specific research infrastructure unit. It opens the discussion around the application of these models in practice.

Past seminars

The causal impact of health on employment and earnings: a partial identification approach with imperfect instruments

Wednesday 22 July 2026 from 13.00-14.00

Presenter: Dr Akbar Ullah, University of Manchester
Dr. Akbar is an economist specialising in applied health and labour economics. He is a Research Fellow in Health Economics at the Health Organisation, Policy, and Economics (HOPE) group at the University of Manchester, and a member of the Applied Research Collaboration Greater Manchester (ARC-GM). 

Synopsis:  
In observational studies, estimates of the impact of health on labour market outcomes often risk bias due to omitted variables, measurement errors, and reverse causality.

Using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, this paper applies a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound the causal effects of health on employment and monthly labour earnings.

Point estimates show that having one health condition reduces the probability of employment by 0–7.5 percentage points and two conditions by 1.6–7.9 percentage points. For earnings, one condition reduces monthly earnings by £0–£1,494 and two conditions by £189–£1,524. Based on 95% confidence bounds, having two or three health conditions, relative to none, statistically rules out null effects on both employment and earnings.

Using biomarkers as an alternative, less error-prone measure of health, one abnormal blood test reduces the probability of employment by 0.8–3.5 percentage points and monthly earnings by £430–£1,808, while two abnormal tests reduce employment by 2.7–5.5 percentage points and earnings by £1,919–£3,529. The 95% confidence bounds rule out null effects for one and two abnormal tests for employment, but only for two abnormal tests for earnings.

Disease-specific results were also provided for several non-communicable conditions.

 

Is Caring Productive? The Effect of Adult Social Care on Paid Production in England

Tuesday 21 April 2026 from 13.00-14.00

Presenter: ​​Dr Francesco Longo, University of York
Francesco is based at the Centre for Health Economics, University of York. His research focuses primarily on estimating marginal productivity in the health and social care sector in England.

Synopsis: 
Publicly funded Adult Social Care (ASC) does more than improve care-related quality of life—it may also support economic activity. Using data from English local authorities (2014/15–2019/20), this study finds that higher ASC spending increases paid production, with effects growing over time. The results highlight the potential for ASC investment to contribute to economic sustainability as well as wellbeing.

Seminar series organisers

 

Sara McCloskey
University of Southampton
e: s.c.w.mccloskey@soton.ac.uk 

 

Carlos Rojas Roque
University of York
e: carlos.rojasroque@york.ac.uk

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