What are we trying to do?
We are looking at two specific aspects of maternity care in Greater Manchester (GM).

 

We worked with the local GM healthcare system to predict future demand for maternity services in 2029 and 2034. 

 

We’re also working with the Greater Manchester and East Cheshire (GMEC) Maternity team to investigate current inequalities in access to, and outcomes of, maternity services.

 

Why is this important?
Knowing what demand will be for maternity care in GM means we can plan future services and staffing needs with more certainty. For example, this analysis has been used as part of GMEC maternity’s workforce modelling and in its plans for future service design.

 

Having additional knowledge about any inequalities in maternity service access and outcomes is an important way to encourage positive change going forward.

 

How are we doing it?
For our work around maternity population health modelling, we included data from the Maternity Services Data Set (MSDS) on the use of maternity services, alongside 2021 Census information and other up-to-date administrative data. By bringing all the information together, we could see the size and demographics of the GM population, how this has changed over time, and how it’s expected to develop in the future. 

 

For our work around inequalities in maternity services, we want to increase our understanding of the inequalities experienced by different population groups. To help with this, we are discussing with the Greater Manchester Local Maternity and Neonatal System (LMNS) how we can use the Index of Disparity (IoD) to estimate the level of inequality for each population group in a number of areas, including stillbirth, smoking rates and late booking. Using the IoD over several time points will help us assess whether health inequalities are being reduced over time. 
 

Findings
We analysed the population based on 2021 Census data and combined this information with future population predictions to forecast what pregnancy rates would be in GM both 5 (2029) and 10 years (2034) ahead.

 

In 2021, approximately 3.45% of the female population in GM were pregnant. We project that this percentage will decrease slightly to 3.42% in 2029, and 3.39% in 2034. However, given the expected increase in the total population over the coming years, this represents an extra 1,967 and 1,937 pregnancies in 2029 and 2034 respectively, compared to 2021.

 

For more information and further findings, please get in touch with the team using the contact details below.

 

 

Who are we working with?

•    Greater Manchester Integrated Care System 
•    Greater Manchester and East Cheshire (GMEC) Maternity Services

 

More information

 

 

Senior Programme Lead
Mike Spence
Michael.spence@manchester.ac.uk